Stubborn Bond Markets in the Face of Mounting Fiscal, Monetary, Geopolitical and AI Challenges

New GARI Strategic Briefing by Michal Kořan:

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Bond markets, AI debt financing, the growing competition for capital, Iran, China — and what the signals are telling us about what may come next.

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Read the full briefing

GARI Enterprise has launched Market Lens, a commodity intelligence platform providing forward-looking price predictions, volatility insights, and market signals across global commodity markets.

The platform is built on GARI’s proprietary modelling system, developed over nearly 10 years and brought into commercial use in 2025.

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Market Lens is designed for procurement teams and trading desks, offering dedicated environments for cost and timing decisions as well as market positioning and opportunity identification.

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[Read press release]

Conflict between the U.S. and Iran timed around oil price settlement windows?
We mapped geopolitical events against WTI and Brent settlement dates.

The result is strategic timing by the US administration:
- Escalation → de-escalation → negotiation rhetoric
- Repeating just before key pricing windows
- Physical market tightening while forward prices stay contained

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What comes next:
- April 21 (WTI settlement): expect continued de-escalatory signaling into the close — unsurprisingly, this also aligns with the current ceasefire / peace deadline framework being pushed by the Trump administration 
- Immediately after: renewed escalatory rhetoric likely
- Into end-April (Brent indexation): another round of softening / negotiation framing
- If no deal materializes, early May becomes the break point.

Plan B for Europe was featured at Kompas pro Česko, Economia’s leading business summit focused on economic security, resilience, and sustainability. The panel “Clean Industrial Deal: Do We Have a Plan B for the European Economy?” discussed GARI’s proposal to adjust the Green Deal toward greater competitiveness and realism, with contributions from Michal Kořan (Global Arena Research Institute), Pavel Kovář (Hitachi Energy), and David Müller (Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic), alongside broader discussions involving European leaders including former German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck.

Odessa Primus, CEO of GARI Enterprise, attended Web Summit in Lisbon as a Woman in Tech, presenting Market Lens to international businesses across sectors. Meetings included a West Asian warehouse development company, global energy firms, manufacturers and industrial product builders, and commodity trading groups, with discussions focused on how high-accuracy commodity price projections can support procurement, cost planning, and risk management in volatile global markets.

Global Arena Research Institute has established GARI Enterprise s.r.o., a for-profit spin-off focused on delivering high-accuracy commodity price predictions to businesses and industry. Building on nine years of research and development, GARI Enterprise commercialises the Institute’s modelling and simulation work through Market Lens, a B2B SaaS platform providing forward-looking commodity price projections, cost and demand outlooks, disruption impact modelling, and strategic decision support for companies exposed to price volatility and supply-chain risk.

"Recept, jak nakopnout výkonnost evropské ekonomiky, s nímž nedávno přišel Mario Draghi, je v zásadě nerealistický – tvrdí to tým expertů pod vedením Michala Kořana z organizace Global Research Arena Institute. A tak předložili vlastní alternativní návrh, jak zvýšit růst ekonomiky a zacelit rostoucí rozdíly, které pak v důsledku vedou čím dál víc lidí k tomu, že volí populisty. Podle Michala Kořana je nereálné věřit, že by EU dokázala dohnat ztrátu, kterou má na USA nebo Čínu v nejmodernějších oborech a technologiích. „Z hlediska umělé inteligence, výroby polovodičů a podobně Evropě ujel vlak. A musel by se stát velký zázrak, abychom ten vlak začali ne dohánět, ale abychom ztrátu udrželi alespoň na současné úrovni,“ tvrdí Kořan. Podle něj bychom se v Evropě raději měli soustředit na to, v čem jsme dobří, tedy hlavně na průmysl. Jak to udělat a kolik by to stálo?"

Our strategic proposal for Europe’s energy and industrial future was spotlighted in Hospodářské noviny, with GARI founder Michal Kořan in conversation with Ondřej Houska. The discussion highlights key insights from the Plan B report and its relevance to Europe’s competitiveness agenda.

At our closed-door discussion co-hosted by OSW on 13 May 2025, participants explored how trade, energy transition, and social justice intersect with Europe’s competitiveness and cohesion. The conversation unpacked political, psychological, and strategic dimensions of today’s global volatility—and asked: How is the world changing, and for whom?

This high-level discussion in Bratislava reimagined security through a societal lens—exploring how trust, identity, and cognitive resilience shape our responses to today’s complex, fast-moving threats. With contributions from leading experts, the event challenged traditional frameworks and called for new approaches rooted in cohesion and adaptability.

GARI joined students of political science and sociology to explore what curiosity about society means today—and how young people envision an ideal future. From the green transition to public health and systemic reform, the discussion bridged complexity with real-world priorities and bold questions.

Supported by the International Visegrad Fund and KAS, GARI has published 10 papers focusing on:

• Material Dependencies and Supply Chain Resilience in EU Military Technology Development

• Digital Entrepreneurship and gender in Europe

• Rare Earth materials

• Electromobility, Supply chains and Dependencies

• See all by clicking below:

In May 2024, the Next 100 Symposium took place in Berlin, bringing together top experts to discuss vital current topics such as the green energy transition, evolving global disorder, trade realities, and the future of fundamental science. Notable speakers included Jiri Sedivy, Director of the European Defence Agency, Hans Pung, President of RAND Europe, and Milena Roveda, CEO of Gauss Fusion.

Hosted at the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Warsaw, with support from the International Visegrad Fund, this event addresses Europe's future energy and environmental policies. It tackles the conflict between supply security, affordability, and sustainability. Using advanced data analyses, we will assess past efforts and debate realistic, equitable policies to harmonize these competing priorities for the EU's future.

Backed by the International Visegrad Fund GARI will host workshops about green energy policy in the EU and present these findings and host discussion. 

Odessa and Michal visited N100 speaker and GARI board member Frederick Bodry in Geneva to talk about nuclear fusion, physics, the Big Bang, past & future of science and generally life, and the universe! 

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Frederick Bordry is CTO at Gauss Fusion and both he and the CEO Milena Roveda join us at the N100 in Berlin this May!

Executive director Odessa Prius attended a dialogue program for young experts on security policy from Central and Eastern Europe!

The KAS dialogue program is intended to provide a broad group of participants from the countries of Eastern and Central Europe with insights into the status of the "Zeitenwende" in Germany and give them the opportunity to communicate perceptions and expectations from their home countries to their German counterparts – and to enter into dialogue with each other.

GARI’s Director of Research and Data Science Adriana Ilavská was one of 12 experts asked about how Artificial intelligence is entering elections! Read about it here👇 

Executive Director, Odessa Primus had the privilege to be a G20 delegate on the Jagriti Yatra entrepreneurial train journey around India during India’s G20 Presidency, sharing two weeks with 70 other international G20 delegates and 450 Indian participants on a train.

Interview of GARI's founder for Forbes Česko (in Czech) about expectations for the year 2024 Michal Kořan has been drawing attention to the interconnectedness and the risks associated with globalization for a long time. In an interview for Forbes, he elaborates on what threats and opportunities we can expect from this year.

Global Arena Research Institute partnered with Aspen Institute Central Europe in preparing a robust study on digitalization of micro- and small enterprices which serves as a background for the fourth panel "Digitalization" How to help small enterprises" with excellent speakers, like Vera Jourova, Tania le Moigne, Tomáš Prouza and more.

The Berlin Summit initiated an ambitious cycle of planning leading up to the 28th COP.  EVE (Earth Virtualisation Engines) responds to the need to help vulnerable communities and sectors anticipate the consequences of climate change and thereby protect lives and livelihoods. 

Welcome by Monika Zahálková, Executive Director & Jakub Seidler, Economic Analyst, Czech Banking Association; GARI research results by Founder Michal Kořan; First comments by Monika Ladmanová, Head of the European Commission's Representation in Prague; followed by an open discussion. Supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

Executive Director Odessa Primus presented on "How to use a digital twin of the world to understand, predict and design globalisation at the CEE Sustainable Finance Summit in Prague in May 2023. https://www.ceesummit.org/#agenda

Co-organised with the Prague office of Konrad Adenauer Stiftung GARI prepared the agenda and foresight workshop for representative think tanks, political parties and corporations from the Central European region. Research supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

Michal Koran spoke at a closed meeting of members of the CDU MoP Sepp Müller, Knut Abraham and Christian Hirte about the potential impact of global regionalisation (or deglobalisation) on European and regional politics, economics and business. 22. March 2023

Jeffrey Saunders is an

Expert in Strategic Futures Studies and Foresight, Executive Advisor, and Founder and CEO of Nordic Foresight

Andrew S. Thompson is adjunct assistant professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, and the Global Governance Programs and Partnership Manager at the Balsillie School of International Affairs. 

Our Security Cannot Be Taken For Granted (Naše bezpečnost není samozřejmost) Conference 2021. Michal Koran, President of Global Arena Research Institute, presented GARI insights on Covid-19 as a strategic shock in panel with General Aleš Opata Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces.

GARI invites you to attend or watch back the European Vision for AI 2021 event. GARI Director Odessa Primus is moderating the breakout on "industry".

GARI has made a briefing ready about the announcement on the 21st of April by the European Commission on Fostering a European approach to Artificial Intelligence. Prepared by Teodora Stirbat.

GARI is proud to announce that it has been successful in getting a grant from TACR - the Czech Technological Agency for its project AID TWIGLOW budgeting at 8 million krouns.

idnes: Zašpuntovaný Suez ukázal zranitelnost námořní dopravy a Evropy, říká expert

Interview with GARI founder Michal Koran on the new Suez crisis.

ihned.cz: Pokropte to penězi, dokud to nevyroste. Polemika s Thomasem Pikettym
GARI has produced a comprehensive study on the Visegrad countries in Europe for the last 30 years covering the Finance & banking sectors, Economy, Business & regulatory environment & governance, Environment & Energy,  Society: income, inequality, poverty, employment, demographics & education, Employment, Education,  Demographics & Health, Trade & investment flows. They have been reflected in the Czech media.

GARI & our partner BSIA, the Balsillie School of International Affairs, together with CIGI and other partners have met for the second time on AI Governance to discuss research areas to pursue. More content coming...

10toGo accelerator by Volkswagen and Microsoft inviting teams to tackle the SDGs with projects using data and AI. GARI and it's Executive Director Odessa Primus were invited as SDG experts helping 3 teams, one of which, Pina, won. This initiative is by Advisory Board member Patrick van der Smagt, Director of AI, Volkswagen Group

Continuing its series of important events and reports, previously welcoming guests from the UN high-level panel on Digital Cooperation, now GARI invites the creators of the Stanford HAI Global AI Index 2021. Listen to our podcast here or on your favourite app.

Job Carroll Henning, a GARI International Advisory Board Member and dear friend, passed away on February 23rd 2021 at the age of 48. He is survived by his wife Nino Japaridze and three children. He was a cherished friend and professional asset of the Global Arena Research Institute and our future was brighter because of him. He is dearly missed and in our memory.